Posted 20200420

I'm not a doctor. I don't have anything more than an analytical mind that looks at data. If you want to ignore this, please do. I an not trying to start any fights. I point out incredibly bad conclusions being drawn regarding by supposed experts regarding public wearing of masks. 

There are two articles of note here. One is COMMENTARY (Says so right on it), but it is a professional medical research group that recommends against requiring mask wearing in public:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data  

Here is a direct quote:

We do not recommend requiring the general public who do not have symptoms of COVID-19-like illness to routinely wear cloth or surgical masks because:

·        There is no scientific evidence they are effective in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

·        Their use may result in those wearing the masks to relax other distancing efforts because they have a sense of protection

·        We need to preserve the supply of surgical masks for at-risk healthcare workers.

Sweeping mask recommendations—as many have proposed—will not reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, as evidenced by the widespread practice of wearing such masks in Hubei province, China, before and during its mass COVID-19 transmission experience earlier this year. Our review of relevant studies indicates that cloth masks will be ineffective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, whether worn as source control or as PPE. 

End quote

Here is article two:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956 

This article agrees with the first article on one specific point. Untreated masks do not prevent mortality. 100% of mice presented with virus infected air on untreated masks died within two weeks. Here is the graph:

So point 1 is true for bare masks. Point 1 is false (a binary false in this experiment - all mice survived) when using a salt treated mask. Note - the virus used in this study (2017) were two SARS viruses. Similar, but not identical, to COVID.

Look at this graph taken today (20200417) from:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/  

Countries that are compelling because of their absence:

Japan (pop 127 million)

South Korea (pop 51 million)

On a per capita basis, both of these countries should be on here. They are not. I am not presupposing to say the prevalent use of masks in these cultures is the only effect, but it is clearly bad science to make point #1 above:  There is no scientific evidence they are effective in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. There is at least anecdotal evidence, and I am confident that with an afternoon of thought, I could make a fairly quantifiable justification of that based on this data alone. There are likely other contributors, but ignoring the cultural bias associated with the expectation to wear masks in these areas seems to be ignoring an important epidemiological fact. 

Further note, I will bet the vast majority of the mask wearing people in Japan and South Korea are not using salt treatment. So given #1 (I'm stipulating bare mask don't help the wearer), how do you account for the lack of representation by Japan and South Korea on this? Masks are effective in preventing the spread of the virus by infected people. 

The authors arguing against use of masks by the public state:

Cloth masks as source control

A historical overview of cloth masks notes their use in US healthcare settings starting in the late 1800s, first as source control on patients and nurses and later as PPE by nurses.²⁰

Kellogg,²¹ seeking a reason for the failure of cloth masks required for the public in stopping the 1918 influenza pandemic, found that the number of cloth layers needed to achieve acceptable efficiency made them difficult to breathe through and caused leakage around the mask. We found no well-designed studies of cloth masks as source control in household or healthcare settings.

In sum, given the paucity of information about their performance as source control in real-world settings, along with the extremely low efficiency of cloth masks as filters and their poor fit, there is no evidence to support their use by the public or healthcare workers to control the emission of particles from the wearer.

They could not find a study? Sloppy and lazy. I think I can run an experiment in three days with the right equipment (need a DOP* generator and reader) that could make a reasonable argument to demonstrate source control effectiveness:

1. Determine volume of a cough. (not new science here, I'm guessing)

2. Put a trace contaminant (e.g. DOP* used in HEPA filter test). Measure the amount "released" by a surge expression of the cough volume with no mask.

3. Repeat with a cloth face mask.

I'm willing to wager large sums of money on two facts:

1. Contamination will be found in both expressions.

2. Less contamination will be found on the one using a face mask. And large variations in amounts will be measured based on fit, number of layers, and material. 

USEFUL science would do the above and provide data that states, for example, (this is an e.g., not a statement of fact): Two layers of t shirt cotton used as a mask with reasonably tight adherence to the face result in a 50% reduction in the amount of contaminant detected in the expressed volume. Then we can have the argument about whether a 50% source reduction is worth making a regulation over it. 

It is incredibly bad science for the authors in paper one to draw the conclusions they did based on a study of particulate efficiency. This is a classic example of the loss of expertise we are suffering in STEM areas, and the corresponding loss of belief in experts by society. These are cause and effect.

This is not an argument in favor or in opposition to "opening the country". This is my attempt to inform you that you can do something to both reduce your chance of infecting others and reduce your chance of getting sick. Wear a salt brine infused mask when in public. All the cool kids do...

Thanks for reading!

All the best,

Brian

*DOP = dioctyl (2-ethyl hexyl) phthalate (DOP) - used in HEPA filter testing.

Engine preservation during storage

So I had two gasoline engines (lawn mower, weed eater) in long term storage from June of 2011 until April of 2015. The following helped make them easy to start when they returned:

1. Prior to storage, I ran the engines until they ran out of gas.
2. I removed the spark plug, sprayed a generous amount of WD-40 into the cylinder, cycled the starting cord several times, and then sprayed another round of WD-40. I reinstalled the spark plug.
3. Drained the oil.

Upon receiving the items from long term storage:
1. Removed the spark plug, cleaned it (really just wiped with paper towel and scraped electrodes with my finger nail).
2. Sprayed in WD-40. Cycled starting cord several times.
3. Reinstalled spark plug.
4. Filled oil to proper level.
5. Cleaned (and oiled) air filter.
6. Sprayed ether into the air filter.
7. Started the engine.

Both started right up. And they have each completed the first lawn mowing of the season.

Building a cell phone holder for my motorcycle

Okay, project today - cell phone holder. Constraints - low cost, simple, effective, and do not damage phone.

First step to keeping cost low: Use something old. This is a piece of sheet metal I found in the trash at a construction site.  I measured and marked it for the length of my cell phone. You can see I was lucky in that there was no bending on the part that I needed to use.

After cutting it off using a Kawasaki Dremel Tool with a Dremel wheel attachment (more on this below), I had this:

Next step was to trim the height of the end piece - it just stops the phone from sliding any more once the sides are in place. It is marked here:

This is what we have so far. So far, so good.

Next, I bent one lip over that will hold the phone. These two pictures show I did it in stages:

Next, I trimmed the opposite side off - didn't need that material.

Now to bend that side up, and then over in order to form the other lip. I did this in two separate bends with Vice Grips, and did small bends down the length of the bend. 

Once that is done, we are starting to look pretty reasonable:

Next, I cut out an insert for where the camera lens is on the phone. It protrudes out of the phone a millimeter or two and I did not want it to get scratched:

And here is the camera fit. Truth in advertising, I had to make this cut twice in order to get sufficient depth on the insert. 

Next I put some Gorilla Tape on the sides to keep them from scratching my phone, and then drilled two holes for the Ram Ball mount. This was cannibalized from a GPS mount holder that came with my motorcycle. So why a zip tie? Well the zip tie actually has a pretty  low profile, probably less that a screw head, and most importantly the zip tie is on the surface the phone rides on - don't want any fasteners on that surface. I trimmed the end off after the picture.

And here is the finished product, taken from the perspective of the rider. It does not block any movement of the handlebars, and does not block view of the tachometer or speedometer.

And works in either vertical or horizontal orientation. If you look carefully, you'll see the power cord going in on the bottom (vertical) or right side (horizontal). I had to cut a slot out of the end piece for that, but that also gives me a place to push the phone up and out of the holder.

All in all, a very successful project. The Kawasaki rotary tool works better than my original Dremel tool, but the attachments for the Dremel are better. I used a metal cutting wheel with a cam locking shaft to attach it to the rotary tool. It worked very well. A quick picture of the tool that made it easy:

Always use eye and ear protection. You can also see my old holder there as well.

Computer Security

I keep struggling with how I want to maintain security and reliability for my critical information.

First things first - if you are in an area where you are concerned about your safety because of information you feel you need to keep encrypted - don't use the internet. I don't have any information that requires this level of security. If you do, you have bigger problems than security, but here are a few ideas:

Don't connect the computer to the internet. Have a dedicated machine with a tamper seal (I'd recommend a laptop) with a strong password for log in. Note that if someone is trying to get access to your information, they can put a hard drive in your machine that looks exactly like a windows log in and have it send your password information over the internet - and if their hard drive is in the machine, your log on password is now compromised. If they image your hard drive and put it back in the machine, but with an altered system file that just sends keystrokes to a remote IP address, you won't even know your data is compromised. So the tamper seal becomes important - but probably can be overcome if they are dedicated.

The best way to overcome this attack is to encrypt the root volume of your computer, which TrueCrypt will allow you to do. Again, I don't have any information that falls into this level of security. I'd use an encryption program such as TrueCrypt to cover the information on the drive on the drive as well, with a long sentence based password that is something you'd remember, like "ThetimeIbangedthatchickIpickedupatthebarwasAWESOME!", or use a key file with a picture that you recognize, but keep it in a picture album with many other files. Or use both. This allows for a form of backup, if you are willing to risk it, since the encrypted volume file can be copied. If it is less than 4GB, burn it to a DVD. Without the keyfile or password, it is probably protected against anybody but the NSA. Or them torturing you to get the access. Again, if you have this level of security problems, I wish you the best. Caveat Emptor - I've never used the encrypted root volume of TrueCrypt, so I am unsure how effective it is or even how to set it up.

For run of the mill, ordinary people, like my self, I recommend the following. I break my information down into three categories:

1. Information that I have a ton of, that is not particularly sensitive, that I would like to keep backed up, ideally both locally and remotely. There are plenty of pay to play services here that work fine. I like iDrive as you can have a key file that makes the information garbage to them. If it is smaller, SkyDrive from Microsoft gives you 25GB for free. We routinely make DVD backups on a monthly / yearly basis to backup our photos. There are several online services that allow you large backup volumes. I'll admit I don't use one.
2. Information that I want to keep secure, but is not huge. In this category I place my Quicken data files, my downloaded pay statements, scans of hard copy financial data, backup of my contact data, etc. While I wish it were open source to really provide the level of cryptographic integrity that comes with open source software, I currently use CloudFogger in conjunction with a SkyDrive account to keep all my important data both secure, and remotely backed up. This data exists in an encrypted state on my hard drive, so if my laptop is stolen, I am relatively confident that they will not get access to the data, and with the remote backup capability, I'll be able to recover the information. 
3. I only recently started using #2 above, and before that I used (and still use) a 10 GB partition on my computer encrypted with a long password or key file. Right now the only thing of note on that partition is my Outlook file. I don't think it is any more or less secure than CloudFogger, but I believe the performance is a bit faster. But that is totally anecdotal. No testing to back that up. 
4. For all my passwords, I use KeePass. I use a file that is uploaded to DropBox, and then can access that on my phone if required. I try not to use this option much, and always close the application on my phone when complete. But there have been several times I've been happy to have it on my phone.

Note that DropBox is also a potential choice, though it does not have the same size for free that SkyDrive has. DropBox is potentially a better performer that SkyDrive in terms of internet loading in that DropBox tracks the sectors of a file that have changed and only updates those sectors. SkyDrive does a file change based replication. Note these again are based on anecdotal reading - not based on testing I've personally executed. 

I recommend that you do not keep information from #2 above on your phone. Too risky. I keep contact information, email, tasks, notes, and a copy of my KeePass file as I mentioned above. That is as much risk as I want to take for a cell phone. If someone steals it, my entry password is probably secure enough that they won't guess it before my phone wipes itself. Bottom line, consider that all unencrypted information on your phone will be compromised. I recently went through my Outlook Notes with that in mind and changed many Outlook Notes to entries in KeePass. This gives me a sufficient level of comfort with the security of the data.

More stupid car tricks

Some follow up here. Turns out the low coolant level was not the cause - the overheating caused a loss of coolant. In the end, it was a bad thermostat that caused the overheating. Since I've replaced the thermostat, I've had no more issues.

I had an issue where the car would not start after sitting idle for four days. Charged battery, started fine. I took the car to AutoPort, asked them to check battery and alternator. They said both were fine. I had another issue a few weeks later, measured battery voltage at 10.25 volts. Replaced battery and have not had an issue since.

Don't use a ScotchBrite dish scrubbing pad on a motorcycle windscreen. The scratches aren't bad, but you are not going to be happy with them.

Stupid car lessons

1996 Italy version BMW 528. Two issues that came down to being stupid:

1. Had valve knocking noise that ended up being low oil level.
2. Had thermostat issues that ended up being low coolant level.

Lesson Learned: Engineers sometime "assume" away the easiest answer.

*Garage Storage Solution*

2 February 2010

I saw this idea on the web and thought I'd copy it as a great "someday" project.

If you are like my family, we are constantly short on space in our house. Rather than buy a huge McMansion, we bought what we could afford and ended up with a ranch house with about 2000 square feet. While this is big compared to previous generations, it seems ours has more “stuff”. We have been working at cleaning out junk and freeing up space but we are still coming up short and everything seems cluttered. This seems even more so with our acquisition of more and more preparedness materials. In order to help alleviate the constant storage issue, I decided it was time to build overhead garage storage. I wanted a place where I could store items while I work on securing “tickets” for my family. I also want those items all together and easily accessible. My preference is to have some boxes which would easily load and stack on my 5’x8’ utility trailer and be strong enough to hang from the ceiling.

After searching around at various stores, including WalMart and Target, I found exactly what I was looking for at Lowes.

These totes are just under 30 inches long with allows me to place two rows in the trailer and hang them in rows of two on the ceiling. They are made to hold 400 pounds, not that I will ever put that much in them, but I know they are solid. This helps though when stacking them. I can comfortable stack two to three without worrying about the bottom tote having its sides bow out. They also have a solid lip around the top for hanging them like I wanted to do. Finally the tops have small holes on the edges where they can be secured with zip ties to ensure they stay shut.

For what I did here are the materials needed.
• 12 of the above totes $11.67 each (Lowes)
• 4 – 1x4x10 boards $2.91 each (Lowes)
• 4 – 2x4x10 $3.69 each (84 Lumber)
• 16 – 3/8x8 lag screws $1.89 each (84 Lumber)
• 16 – 3/8 washers $1.04 per bag needed 4 bags (Lowes)
• 40 – 4” deck screws $8.99 for one box (Lowes)
• Total cost $209.95

Lowes did not have 1x4x10 but they had 1x4x8. I thought about purchasing the 8 foot lengths but thought I would end up with waste and end up spending more in the end. I went to 84 Lumber and they had the 10 foot lengths. I also purchased the lag screws at Lowes at $3.00 each, but when I went to 84 Lumber they were $1.89 there so I purchased them again and returned the ones I bought at Lowes.

The first step is to cut the 1x4s and 2x4s in half. This provided enough room to support two totes with an inch to spare. Once all the boards are cut, I stood the 2x4x5s on the 2” side and put gorilla glue on the up side. Then I laid a 1x4x5 on top of the board and secured the ends with clamps. I then started putting the deck screws into the boards from the 1x4x5 into the 2x4x5. I spaced the screws 1’ apart. Repeat this for all of them. I ended up with 8 of the combined boards.

*In my first attempt I left the boards uncut in their 10’ lengths. I found this unwieldy and difficult to cut with my miter saw.

The next step is to prepare the ceiling of the garage. The joists in my garage were 24” apart. Rather than measure out everything before hand and end up missing or messing up something, I started with one side and moved from there once I had the first boards secured.

To make find the center of the joist I measured to where I thought it should be and marked it. I then took a small hammer and penny nails to find the exact center. I did this where I wanted to start and then I repeated this step well past where I thought where the boards would hang. I then had my wife help me put a chalk line on the ceiling to help me keep the boards straight.

To put the boards up, I measured where the boards would cross the joists. Each board crossed the joist 3 times. I placed them so they would cross near the ends and again in the middle. I drilled a pilot hole into the joist with a 1/4” bit. I measured several times and made sure the holes I drilled into the boards lined up exactly. I marked the boards with a marker and drilled a hole into the boards with a 3/8” bit. I then put washers on the lag screws and pushed them through the holes in the board and put them up to the ceiling to ensure they lined up. Measuring multiple times helps to prevent mistakes here.

I put a few of these up by myself, but it is much easier to have some help here. I secured one end into the joist enough where it could hold itself for a minute and then climbed my second ladder to secure the second side. Getting the lag screws into the ceiling took some work at first. The head of the lag screw was 9/16. My 9/16 socket had a small ratchet and I could not get leverage. I took a 3’ piece of pipe and added it to the handle and things when much easier from there.

After putting the first one up I needed to make sure I had room to slide the tote between the boards. I measured along the chalk line 21” from the boards I just secured to the ceiling. This helped keep the spacing right and kept me from drifting. I then measured 21” from the second lag screw and marked. This mark was usually off a little and I had to measure to find the joist. Again, lots of measuring helps keep everything straight.

Once the measuring is done I repeated drilling and securing the boards to the ceiling. After every time I added new boards I put an empty tote up there to make sure I had the proper spacing.

These boards are pretty secure into the joists. I have some of the boxes up in the ceiling now holding about 45 pounds each. To test them, I hung off of them with all of my 220 pounds and they did not budge.

I am not that “handy” but I like to try to do stuff around the house and think through the problems. In the end I am very happy with how the project turned out. The total time I spent was about 5 hours. If I had consistent help, I think I could have cut it down to 2-3 hours. A lot of my time was lost climbing up and down my two ladders making sure I measured right.

Over the next few weeks as I fill everything I will put labels on the bottom and side of the totes to tell me what is in the boxes.